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\documentclass[beamer,tikz,crop]{standalone}
\input{preamble/tikz_standalone.tex}
\input{preamble/tikz_common.tex}
\input{preamble/tikz_style.tex}
\input{preamble/tikz_colors.tex}
\input{preamble/tikz_jumping.tex}
\input{../abbreviations.tex}
\begin{document}
\begin{tikzpicture}[stop jumping]
\begin{scope}[x=4em, y=8.5ex]
\node[random variable, observed, xshift=-3ex] (Xsn) at (1, 0.25) {$\rv{s}_t$};
\node[random variable, observed, xshift=3ex] (Xan) at (1, 0.25) {$\rv{a}_t$};
\begin{scope}[on background layer]
\node[plate, fit=(Xsn)(Xan)] (Xn) {};
\end{scope}
\node[random variable, observed] (yn) at (.8, -3) {$\rv{s}_{t+1}$};
\node[random variable, latent] (fnm) at (0, -1) {$\rv{f}_t^{\pix{k}}$};
\node[random variable, latent] (sigmanm) at (1, -1) {$\rv{\sigma}_t^{\pix{k}}$};
\node[random variable, latent] (ynm) at (0, -2) {$\rv{s}_{t+1}^{\pix{k}}$};
\node[random variable, latent] (alphanm) at (2, -1) {$\rv{\lambda}_t^{\pix{k}}$};
\node[random variable, latent] (an) at (2, -3) {$\rv{l}_t$};
\draw[edge, directed] (Xn) -| (fnm);
\draw[edge, directed] (Xn) -- (sigmanm);
\draw[edge, directed] (sigmanm) -- (ynm);
\draw[edge, directed] (Xn) -| (alphanm);
\draw[edge, directed] (fnm) -- (ynm);
\draw[edge, directed] (alphanm) -- (an);
\draw[edge, directed] (ynm) |- (yn);
\draw[edge, directed] (an) -- (yn);
% ---
\only<1>{
\begin{scope}[on background layer]
\node[
plate, inner xsep=15pt, inner ysep=4pt,
sBlueDark,
"Current state and action"{sBlueDark, above},
fit=(Xn),
] {};
\node[
plate, inner xsep=15pt, inner ysep=4pt,
sBlueDark,
"Next state"{sBlueDark, below},
fit=(yn),
] {};
\end{scope}
}
\begin{scope}[on background layer]
\node[
plate, inner sep=10pt,
onslide={<2-> sStone, dashed, opacity=.5, fill opacity=.1},
fit=(fnm)(alphanm)(ynm),
label={[anchor=south east]south east:K}
] {};
\end{scope}
\only<2>{
\begin{scope}[on background layer]
\node[
"Flow"{sBlueDark, left, xshift=-5pt},
plate, inner sep=5pt,
sBlueDark,
fit=(fnm),
] {};
\node[
"Turbulence"{sBlueDark, below, xshift=10pt},
plate, inner sep=5pt,
sBlueDark,
fit=(sigmanm),
] {};
\node[
"Drop"{sBlueDark, right, xshift=5pt},
plate, inner sep=5pt,
sBlueDark,
fit=(alphanm),
] {};
\end{scope}
}
\only<3->{
\begin{scope}[on background layer]
\node[
"Heteroskedastic GPs"{sBlueDark, left, xshift=-5pt},
plate, inner sep=5pt,
sBlueDark,
fit=(fnm)(sigmanm)(ynm),
] {};
\node[
"Mode assignment GPs"{sBlueDark, right, xshift=5pt},
plate, inner sep=5pt,
sBlueDark,
fit=(alphanm),
] {};
\node[
"Concrete mode distribution"{sBlueDark, right, xshift=5pt},
plate, inner sep=5pt,
sBlueDark,
fit=(an),
] {};
\end{scope}
}
\end{scope}
\end{tikzpicture}
\end{document}